Forecasting Methods in Modern Enterprise Management

Abstract

The aim of the chapter is to describe advanced methods of forecasting used in modern, high-tech enterprises. One of them – the ARMA model considers the strong dependence between the individual observations, used for prediction of time series, characterized by high dynamics of change. Here will be explained the process of selection of its parameters, and method design of the model. Second – harmonic analysis – uses, in turn, the cyclicality of the time series by which to construct the model describing the time series and what is the forecast for future periods. The first method is a group of parametric models, the second one is nonparametric, and both use the nature of a change of time series. The use of these methods will be shown by example.