Wpływ agregatu globalnej płynności na ceny aktywów finansowych wschodzących gospodarek

Abstract

Contrary to traditional mainstream macroeconomic theory implications, today’s globalized world is akin to persistent current account imbalances, which concern both the major economies and emerging markets. Recent years of unaltered global economic growth witnessed growing integration of major and emerging economies, increasingly interconnected by various financial flows channels in addition to traditional foreign trade channels. This type of integration gave birth to creation of a phenomenon of global liquidity. Several reasons seem to fuel global liquidity, among them being US monetary creation, purposeful FX policy of major emerging market economies, attenuation of global inflation expectations as well as a global quest for return. Global liquidity in turn has implications for the real side of the economy, such as interest rates and consumer demand. It has also played a substantial role in explaining returns of various asset classes and seems to be responsible for growing co-movement between various asset classes in all emerging markets. This implies that mainstream macroeconomic theory will need to put greater emphasis in explaining behavior of emerging markets institutions, such as central banks in order to be able to give an accurate explanation of the global macroeconomic picture.